Marshall (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati
Explanation: I know UC is down to their 3rd QB, but they still have talented wideouts, a solid defense and a great coach. Plus, have you seen Marshall? They're awful. Not only are they being coached by the overmatched Mark Snyder, but they have very little talent on either side of the ball. The Vickers System applied to them once already this year (the 51-14 abortion vs. Wisconsin) and unfortunately we have to take them again.
Vandy (+4) vs. Auburn
Explanation: If you're think Vandy might be decent, ask yourself one question: Man for man, which team is more talented? Auburn, right? And it ain't even close. Never in my life has Vegas ever given Vandy so much respect. So Auburn struggled with Tennessee last week...so what? They still won. And they had LSU beaten just two weeks ago before a late collapse. The Tigers might have a dull offense, and once again shaky QB play, but I see them as a pretty good team - definitely four points better than Lionel Richie's Commodores. Anyway, the line is small for a reason...Vegas is telling us to take Vandy.
Stanford (+7.5) at Notre Dame
Explanation: You know the Irish might be kind of decent, right? They got their act together against Michigan and walked all over Purdue. Jimmy Clausen is playing well and their young wideouts are starting to make plays. As much as I hate to say it, Notre Dame looks like a 9-win team to me. So why are they favored by only a touchdown at home to Stanford, who got pummeled in two road games against teams with comparable talent (TCU, 31-14; Arizona State, 41-17)? If the line here was 10.5 I'd barely notice. But 7...I have to take the almighty Cardinal.
Arkansas (+24.5) at Florida
Explanation: This is one of the two bets I really feel like we have no chance of winning. Craig and I wagered on Arkansas when they got steamrolled by Alabama, and we expect the exact same this week against the almighty Tebow. In case you missed it: Tim Tebow is coming off a loss to Old Mississippi and now he's taking on Arkansas, quite possibly the crappiest BCS team in the land. So tell me...why aren't the Gators a 33-point favorite? I can't believe I have to back the miserable Hogs again.
Baylor (+26) vs. Oklahoma
Explanation: This is the other bet I give us very little chance of winning. Oklahoma is four touchdowns better than most teams, and about seven touchdowns better than Baylor. Even if the Baylor Bears somehow manage to put up 21 points, I don't see how they hold Oklahoma to less than 50. The Sooners are a well-oiled machine and I'm expecting another blowout...which--of course--explains why I'm placing my hard-earned American money on freaking Baylor.
Purdue (+13.5) vs. Penn State
Penn State is really good; Purdue looks like they won't even be able to send Joe Tiller off with a lousy bowl game. What else needs to be said? Anyway, when Vegas throws you a 13.5 point-spread, they're begging you to take the favorite - maybe not as much as a 2.5-point or 6.5-point favorite, but you get the idea. Trust me, Vegas wants you take Penn State. And as much as we'd like to, and as much as we think it's the correct play, Craig and I are going the other way. Go Boilers!
(Note: Craig's on the fence with Kentucky and I think the Brian Vickers System applies and then some. The Kentucky-Bama game starts at 3:30, so I'll let you know well in advance if we decide to add it to our list.)
Season record: 21-11-1
-Brad Spieser (Brad@TwinKilling.com)
10/3/08
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