Friday, October 24, 2008
Posting our picks for the world to see is a tricky thing. Sometimes Craig and I lock in a point-spread on Monday, only to watch it change as much as three points come gameday. The tricky part is whether to post the line we locked in or the current line. To this point, we've mostly used the current line, but it's almost burned us a couple times. And when we've used the line we locked in early in the week I get emails saying that we're not using accurate lines for the sake of the Vickers System. Well, I gots me a compromise.
Every spread posted from here on out will be the actual line Craig and I used on www.BetUs.com (an Internet gambling website). Sound good? And if you don't believe us, email me (Brad@TwinKilling.com) and I will gladly take a screen shot and email it to you. The reason I'm finally bringing this up is because we grabbed a couple of favorable lines earlier in the week that don't match the current spread. I'll point them out below. Anyway, the picks...
San Jose State (+7.5) vs. Boise State
(Note: This is the first favorable line Craig and I nailed down; Boise State is currently an even 7-point favorite and I can't imagine the line moving just a few hours before the game.)
Explanation: Boise State is a good collegiate football team...you know that, right? The Broncos have given up 7,7,3,7 and 7 points in their five games against mid-level competition, which is precisely what San Jose State is. As for Boise's only dance on the big stage, they hung 37 on Oregon at Autzen Stadium in a game they were leading 37-13 in the 4th quarter before hanging on for a 37-32 victory. So...their defense is great for a non-BCS school, their offense is always good (and getting better each game with star freshman QB Kellen Moore), and I don't see any reason why the spread isn't two touchdowns. Oh well. That Vickers ain't no dummy now.
Armal Academy (-2.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Explanation: The Techsters have a really good RB on their team - I can't recall his name at the moment, but he's good...that's all that's important. The Armal Academy? Ha. Those idiots haven't had a good player since former Heisman winner Doc Blanchard, and he hasn't played in about 600 years. Listen, Army stinkss (extra s for emphasis). They should never be favored. Ever. Against anyone.
Tennessee (+7) vs. Alabama
(Note: Depending on where you look, this line has dropped to 5, but Craig and I secured this sucker early on, just in case. Again, I'll email you the screen shot if you need proof.)
Explanation: Alabama Good. Tennessee bad. Is that enough for you? The Vols have one elite player, safety Eric Berry; The Tide have several, and they play really hard. And let's the not forget the sizable coaching advantage of Nick Saban over Philbert Fulmer, who's been asleep at the wheel for the majority of this decade. I hate betting on Tennessee. Hate it. It's unbearable. Watching them play is like watching a porno starring your sister.
Georgia Tech (-14) vs. Virginia
(Note: This line opened at 12, and we didn't bother locking it in - we just assumed it would stay in that safe little 10.5-13.5 range. It didn't. Now it's an even 14 and we're going to wait it out and see if it drops to 13.5. Probably a dumb way to operate, considering a 14.5 line would lead us to suicide, but we're doing it anyway. Regardless, we're backing the Yellow Jackets...but keep checking back to the site on Saturday for line moves.)
Explanation: It was only thirteen days ago when Georgia Tech gutted out a 10-7 victory over the I-AA Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs. A Gardner-Webb team, by the way, with losses to juggernauts Sam Houston State, Charleston Southern and Tennessee Tech. So forgive me for not completely buying into the Rambling Wreck hype just yet. And Virginia? I can't believe I'm writing this, but they're not bad. In consecutive weeks they thumped Maryland 31-0, beat East Carolina 35-20 and upset the Tar Heels 16-13. So tell me again: Why are the Cavs a two-touchdown underdog to a team that has only scored over 30 points once against Division I opponents? Beats the hell out of me. Hooray for Tech!
(****UPDATE****It happened...the line moved to 14.5. Related note: I hate evrything about my life.)
Texas (-11.5) vs. Oklahoma State
Explanation: Plain and simple, George Costanza's "chicken salad...on rye...untoasted..." influenced this pick. Any other year I'd be thinking to myself, "You know, I haven't picked an underdog in three weeks...Oklahoma State is pretty good...maybe they can keep it within ten..." Not this year. Thirteen seems like a lot of points to be giving the Cowboys, which is exactly why we're doing it. It has nothing to do with faith in Texas, it has to do with faith in Brian Vickers.
(****UPDATE****This one moved a little in our favor, from 13 to 11.5)
Missouri (-24.5) vs. Colorado
Explanation: Of every line Vegas posted this week, none are crazier than this one. Considering Colorado is decent enough to become bowl eligible in the Big 12, and that Missouri is good, but not great (and with a lousy defense)...it's impossible for me to understand why I have to lay so many points to get a cover. But the spread is inflated for a reason...Vegas is begging you to wager on the Buffs. Not us. Lord Vickers is much too smart for that.
Ohio State (+2.5) vs. Penn State
My buddy Matt, an Ohio State grad, texted me last night from Wyoming (or North Dakota, or some dumb state a million miles away) and asked me what I thought was going to happen Saturday night at the Shoe. My LOL-free response: I think PSU is two TDs better, but the system is telling us to bet on the Bucks.
Good luck this week! NFL picks (and we have five of 'em) coming Sunday morning.
Season record: 36-28-1
-Brad Spieser (Brad@TwinKilling.com)
Posted by Twin Killing dot Com at 8:03 AM