Saturday, December 6, 2008

Gambling 2K8: Chapter 54 (Championship Saturday)


***NCAAF***

UCONN (-2.5) vs. Pitt

Words: I'll gladly take a loss in this one as long as LeSean McCoy (or as Craig calls him, "LeBlack McBlack") rushes for 143 yards, giving him 1,451 on the season.

(By the way, someone needs to talk some sense into McCoy. There is no point in returning to Pitt. It's not worth it. It's Pitt! LeSean, please come out. You'll be a top ten pick. I promise.)

Arizona (-10.5) vs. Arizona State

Things: See McBlack, LeBlack. Arizona has six wins heading into this rivalry game and I need them to win a seventh. A cover would simply be icing on the cake.

Hawaii (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati

Stuff: The Bearcats are roughly eighty billion times better than Hawaii, and the Islanders won't have a shady officiating crew on their side; Big East refs are keeping order on the field tonight. This should be a blowout.

Tulsa (-11.5) vs. East Carolina

Words: Neither team is all that great: Tulsa lost 70-30 to an average Houston team a few weeks back and East Carolina has merely been average since early-season upsets against Virginia Tech and West Virginia. I don't see a difference between these teams and I can't believe I have to lay double digits.

Florida (-10) vs. Alabama------neutral field

Things: As expected, Percy Harvin is OUT - and "out" typically means not playing. Percy Harvin is one of the greatest college football players of my lifetime - definitely not somebody who is easily replaceable. Tebow is a beast, but undefeated (UNDEFEATED!) Alabama is up for the challenge. Ten points is ridiculous.

Mizzou (+17) vs. Sam Bradford's Improving Complexion------neutral field

Stuff: Oklahoma is rolling at the moment. The Sooners have won five straight and scored at least 58 points in all of them. In those five games the margin of victory has been 23, 34, 38, 44 and 20 - and the "44" and "20" came against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, two teams who are better than Missouri. In order to beat Sam Bradford and Co. - or even keep it close - you must avoid (a.) punting, (b.) settling for field goals and (c.) turning the ball over. You also have to be lucky as hell. I'm hoping for a backdoor cover.

***NBA***

Bobcats (+8.5)
vs. Cavs

Words: Hands down, the craziest line of the day. The Cavs, at 16-3, are - at worst -the third best team in basketball. They've won 15 out of 16, including seven straight by margins of 14, 18, 35, 15, 12, 36 and 24. The Bobcats are the Bobcats; they sport a 7-12 record and lost last night in Milwaukee. The Brian Vickers System was born out of lines like this.

***NCAAB***

Michigan (+9.5)
vs. Duke

Things: Didn't Duke just homicide Purdue in West Lafayette? Aren't the Boilers markedly better than Michigan? Plus, Duke is still Duke, right?

Northwestern (-6) vs. Depaul

Stuff: I'll continue to wager on the Fighting Evan Eschmeyers as long as these lines continue to stand out like this.

Kentucky (-2.5) vs. Miami

Words: Rupp Arena offers a noticeable home-court advantage, but I'm almost certain "noticeable" doesn't mean "fifteen points." Miami should be a six or seven point favorite.

Yesterday's record: 2-1
Overall record: 84-78-4

-Brad Spieser (Brad@TwinKilling.com)
12/6/08

2 comments:

Jeff said...

Do you make the Hawaii bet at the same time as all the others? Or do you make up for the losses on the day by going big on the Hawaii game?

Twin Killing dot Com said...

We bet the same amount for every game, and that's our biggest flaw. The Vickers System is here to stay, but it's in need of minor tweaking. What we need is come up with some sort of weighting system, but I haven't figured out how to make it work.

In my non-Vickers past, however, yes, I've tried to make it all up with midnight Hawaii games. Who hasn't?