Truth be told, I don't see a bunch of easy winners out there for Thursday's Sweet 16 games. Yeah, it seems like Louisville will handle Tennessee--especially since Chris Lofton had some sort of random leg surgery this week--but you never know. I also think XU-West Virginia could turn into a 78-76 mini-shootout--which would go way over the total of 136--but I don't love it. You're still talking about Xavier, who can throw multiple bodies at Joe Alexander, versus a Bob Huggins team; a slugfest is entirely possible. As for Western Kentucky-UCLA, these games often turn into blowouts, but a 12-point spread is a lot of points for the Sweet 16 round.
Proceed with caution.
There is one game I do like, however, and that is the over of Washington State-North Carolina, which is currently 141.
North Carolina, obviously, is playing offensive basketball at a very high level (you can thank there best player, lightning-quick PG Ty Lawson, finally getting healthy). Even when Danny Green and Wayne Ellington aren't hitting from long range, the Heels still score a ton of points. And I know I'm not telling you something you don't already know, but more possessions equal more points, and Roy Williams wants to run and run and run. And run some more. Throw in the fact that Tyler Hansbrough is the ultimate college garbage man, and you have a team who can put up 80 points with ease, 90 points on a good night, and 100 points when they're hitting on all cylinders.
But what about Washington State, and their penchant to play ugly 61-56 games?
I'll just say this: The Cougars play those games by choice, not out of necessity. This isn't like Wisconsin, who has doesn't have the weapons to play games in the high 70's, or a mid-major team with without size, depth or a legitimate go-to guy. Nope, Washington State has all those things. Well, kind of, but close enough. Either way, they have a three-guard lineup of PG Taylor Rochestie, SG Derrick Low and G/F Kyle Weaver, who--in my opinion--are much better suited for an up-tempo game. Not like Carolina, of course, but just because WSU prefers to slow it down doesn't mean they can't score in transition. I mean, have you seen Derrick Low play? He does just fine in half-court offense, but he was born to play on a run-and-gun style team, chucking one-on-three 25-footers. How he didn't end up at Oregon, Washington or Gonzaga is beyond me.
But anyway...the reason I bring this up is because you're going to hear over and over from talking heads about how this game comes down to controlling tempo. Well let me tell you a little secret: North Carolina's break is relentless, and it slows down for nobody. Which means that, as much as WSU won't want to, they'll (at times) get caught up in the speed of the game and start chucking long ones. They may not be the Tarheels, but Wazzu is at least somewhat equipped to swap baskets with North Carolina. If North Carolina is a shoe-in for 80 points, I don't see how Washington State doesn't get their 60-plus.
Something else to consider: End-of-game fouling. Remember, this is the NCAA tournament, and many of the guys on the floor (especially for Wash. St., the expected losing team) are playing their last game as amateurs. They don't want to go home; they can't stand the fact that it's over. This means that they will foul and foul and foul in the final minute, just hoping for a miracle. As much as end-of-game fouling occurs during the regular season, it increases dramatically during the tourney, just ask any bettor. (Note: this is assuming the game is within the 10-12 point range, which I think it will be.)
For the past two years I've watched maybe twenty Washington Sate games (thank God for late night Thursday hoops on FSN. Yakka!) and I couldn't shake the feeling that Derrick Low had a special tournament moment in him. It wouldn't shock me at all if he had something like six first half threes while leading his team to a two-point halftime lead. But...I really don't think they have the firepower to beat the Heels, although I expect WSU to keep it close for 35 minutes.
Prediction: UNC 81, WSU 73.
-Brad Spieser (Brad@TwinKilling.com)
3/27/08
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