I pulled this from Joe Lunardi's blog on ESPN.com. (Note: I copy and pasted the entire thing because it's Insider content.) Below is a question Lunardi received from some idiot named John Oster, followed by Mr. Bracketology's in-depth response. I'd like to think this will help Xavier lose the "mid-major" tag, but you and I both know that's unrealistic. Anyway, here's John Oster's question and Lunardi's detailed answer...
How can you possibly have Xavier over Stanford? They both have four losses, and Stanford plays in a league that is about 100 times as difficult as the league Xavier plays in. This was made abundantly clear when Xavier was smoked by 20 points against Arizona State. You cannot possibly tell me a mid-major like Xavier would be 11-3 in the Pac-10. This is a joke.
-John Oster
I'm normally a fairly agreeable guy, but this kind of big conference arrogance makes me want to scream. In no particular order:
-How is Xavier, with 16 NCAA appearances in 23 seasons since the field expanded to 64/65 teams, a mid-major in any way? Four teams from the vaunted Pac-10 -- Washington State (2), Arizona State (3), Oregon State (4) and Oregon (5) -- have 14 NCAA appearances combined in the same time period.
-This is why the Selection Committee evaluates teams, not conferences. In seeding one team over another, it's the overall "body or work" that matters. Interestingly, Xavier is 6-1 vs. InsideRPI Top 50 teams and Stanford is 4-1. At the other end of the spectrum, both teams are perfect against sub-150 competition. But the Musketeers (8-0) have played three fewer "dogs" than the Cardinal (11-0).
-Did I miss something, or didn't Stanford also lose at Arizona State? Same thing for Arizona, Oregon and Washington. Let's be consistent here.
-Citing Xavier's blowout loss at ASU is fine, so long as we cite their double-digit wins over NCAA teams such as Kent State, Indiana and Kansas State. Stanford has one such victory (splitting the season series with Arizona State).
-The best single metric we have in Bracketology is ASM (Adjusted Scoring Margin). Stanford, at 13.15 ppg, ranks No. 20 in the country in this category. Xavier (16.41 ppg) is eighth. If these teams met on a neutral court, Xavier would be favored by 3-4 points.
-I really laugh when I hear something like "no way Xavier could go 12-3 in the Pac-10." No one ever asks the opposite question: Could Stanford go 12-1 in the Atlantic 10? Or 12-3 against the No. 12 nonconference schedule? We'll never know, of course, but we do know the Cardinal's nonconference schedule ranks a less-than-robust No. 313.
-To find a nonconference schedule worse than Stanford's among teams currently in the field, we have to go all the way down to a No. 12 seed. And, wouldn't you know, it's Arizona State (No. 321, even with the win over Xavier).
-For obvious reasons, I remember all too well the beating I took in 2004 for having the temerity to suggest undefeated Saint Joseph's 00 another Atlantic 10 "mid-major" -- deserved a No. 1 seed every bit as much, if not more, than undefeated Stanford. The A-10 was rated higher than the Pac-10 that year, produced more NCAA Tournament teams and the Hawks' nonconference schedule (No. 1) was miles ahead of Stanford's. I also remember Stanford losing in the second round of the NCAAs, while two A-10 teams -- Saint Joseph's and, ironically, Xavier -- lost one-possession games in the Elite Eight.
The truth of the matter is that Stanford, with these numbers, is fortunate to be a No. 3 seed. If the Cardinal wins the Pac-10, then it's time to reassess. In the meantime, John, I suggest you be a tad less dismissive of what you apparently know very little about.
-Brad Spieser (Brad@TwinKilling.com)
3/1/08
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