Can the Young Fellas Carry the Reds?

Wednesday was a big day for Reds content on ESPN.com, but you need an Insider account to view most of it. Or you need me.

Baseball America's Jim Callis answered a number of questions in his chat about the Reds' prospects (including recently signed Dominican teenager Juan Duran); Buster Olney is hearing things about the Reds' willingness to trade Homer Bailey over Johnny Cueto; Rob Neyer wonders why in the hell Jay Bruce and Joey Votto wouldn't be in the everyday lineup; Keith Law of Scouts Inc. predicts a breakout season for Edwin Encarnacion. Enjoy...

From Jim Callis...

Ben (Centerville, OH): Drew Stubbs of the Reds just cracked the BA top 100, how high can he climb if he has a healthy, productive year?

Jim Callis: He could soar up the list if he hits. The bat is the only tool anyone questions--he's a Gold Glove CF with at least 20-20 potential. He made some strides after choking up on the bat late last year, and if he were to come out and hit .300 this year, he'd be in the top 25, at least.

Bob (Kansas): Pelfrey and Bailey both are post-hype type guys, what do you expect from them this year?

Jim Callis: I like Bailey more. He has the stuff, just needs better command (and if you read Buster Olney's blog, perhaps some humility). I'm not sure how good Pelfrey is going to be without a solid breaking ball.


Interruption for Olney's note on Bailey:

The stock of Cincinnati prospect Homer Bailey seems to have taken a dramatic tumble in the past year. Talent evaluators say the Reds have demonstrated a clear willingness to deal Bailey, while coveting fellow prospect Johnny Cueto. And rival teams have grown increasingly skeptical about whether the young right-hander will make the adjustments necessary to become a successful big league pitcher. "What you hear is that [Bailey] is someone who thinks he's got it all figured out," one evaluator said.


Great. Back to the Callis chat...

Brian (Bainbridge, Wa): Is it worth keeping Bruce in the minors until June if it prevents him from becoming a super 2?

Jim Callis: Only if the Reds aren't planning on contending. And they're planning on contending, so farming Bruce out and playing Corey Patterson would be silly.

Ben (Centerville, OH): Lightning Round, Bigger future: Jose Tabata or Juan Duran?

Jim Callis: Tabata

John (Toronto): Joey Votto's ceiling?

Jim Callis: He could make an all-star team or two.

Jeff (NYC): Gun to your head - Jay Bruce or Justin Upton?

Jim Callis: Bruce.


From Rob Neyer's blog (definitely worth reading the entire thing, especially since the following lines about Baker don't exactly capture the mood of Neyer's post):

Baker has a real opportunity in Cincinnati. He has the exact sort of team that could, with proper management and a little luck, shoot past the supposed contenders and shock the world (or at least the National League). It's the sort of team made for Earl Weaver or Davey Johnson.

Dusty Baker, though? He has some of the makings of a Hall of Fame manager, but he's not there yet. This season is the first big test of what's likely to be the last act of his three-act career. If he fails this one, it's hard to imagine generating any great enthusiasm for putting him in the Coop someday.


From Keith Law's piece predicting ten breakout players of 2008:

I predicted a breakout for (Edwin) Encarnacion in 2007, and he responded with a putrid April and a trip to the minors. But after his return, he played more like he did in 2006. Encarnacion can hit, and will hit, both for average and for power. Given his home park in Cincinnati, he should have a 30-homer season or two before he reaches free agency.

His main trouble is defense; he consistently has been among the worst third basemen in baseball since his call-up, and there's little reason to believe he'll ever be average. Either the Reds will have to accept his poor defense at third or consider moving him to left field, assuming they decline Ken Griffey Jr.'s $16.5 million option for 2009.


That's all for now, boys and girls.

-Brad Spieser (Brad@TwinKilling.com)
3/5/08